BUSINESS ERA

Jack Bernstein is the publisher of «MBH» weekly articles on the commodity markets and the author of 27 books on trading.
Within-day trade, which was once the exclusive domain of the interests of traders, trading in the exchange hall, is now fair game for all speculators. Encouraged by the large part of intra-day price fluctuations, continued availability of current quotations possibilities of powerful computers and competitive commissions and spreads, a new wave of intra-day trading methods and systems in recent years has attracted thousands of traders. Undeniably sharp sense of commerce in a single day is, however, a two-edged sword that can harm both themselves and become a winner. To be successful, intra-day trader must have the discipline of the machine, the instincts of foxes, serenity stones, surgeon skill and patience of the saint. (I also did not prevent a little bit of luck.) As in intra-day trade is such that it attracts so many speculators in the market? Are there effective methods for intra-day trading? Successful intra-day trading is more luck or skill? Can be studied intra-day trading? Does a successful intra-day trader is different from a successful position trader? Does intra-day trading more benefits than the position?
Determination of intra-day trading

In summer 1968, after the my first few transactions on the commodity market (as it was called then). I quickly learned that the traders trading in the exchange hall, had a clear advantage over the rest of the audience. Traders in the exchange hall at the center of all activities. They knew the prices before they know all the rest. They traded for the minimum fee, and they seemed to know news that affect the price, before all others. During one of my visits to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, I talk to the former stock exchange floor trader on the balcony for the visitors, and he asked what my trade interests. I said I had to learn how to broker turned to my account and that my knowledge of trade is very limited. He asked me whether I «positional trader» or «intra-day trader». I admit that have not heard any of these terms. He proposed the following definitions: intra-day trader trades in the interim period, one day, entering and leaving their positions during the day, but always close the transaction by the end of the day, regardless of whether they are winning, losing or empty.

This definition seemed to me quite logical. But the definition of positional trade made me stop and think for a moment. He identified the positional trade as intra-day trading, which finishes the day with losses.

After a few moments definition struck me, and I laughed. But under my obvious joy was typical of the market the truth, which never left me since that day. It is clear that the ability to take a loss at the end of the day is likely to be the salvation of many traders, because the vast majority could not accept their losses, when required, in accordance with their system, implying, of course, that they have a system!

Leaving the old ideas

While many traders are strongly opposed to intra-day trading, I do not agree with that. Long-standing cliche that has been given to intra-day trade and intra-day traders should be revalued and left. As I said earlier, computer technology, and competitive commissions and spreads altered intra-day trade once and for all. In fact, if you logically understand the advantages and disadvantages of intra-day trading, compared with the positional trade, the «balance» clearly tilted in favor of intra-day trading. This is - my list:

For and against the intra-day trading

For

1. No concerns nightly news
2. More efficient use of profits
3. Forced Out exclude losses increase
4. Capture of large price fluctuations
5. The advantage of emotions with the positive movement
6. Trade only in active markets
7. Immediate feedback on the results of transactions
Against
1. Within-day variability can be significant, increasing the risk of
2. Requires constant attention
3. The loss of a large global trend
4. The need for continued availability of current quotations
5. The profit is limited, as well as losses
6. Requires an active trade, which increases costs
7. Required iron discipline, which most traders have no
There may be others as the «for», or «against». Of the above, the most important «for» is - a quick way out of losses and immediate feedback on their results. How should these two compelling advantages of intra-day trade and I hope you agree with my assessment. But enough of philosophy and psychology - let us turn to the approaches and methods.

Technical intra-day trading

Please note that I believe that the intra-day trader would be absolutely technical trader, as opposed to fundamentalists. While, ultimately, the fundamental factors can control the market in the long run, they are not so important in the intra-day time scale, with the possible exception of price fluctuations based on the news. Effective intra-day trader has a method to capture the traffic arising from the emotional reaction to important news.


In his book «Capable of intra-day trader» I distinguish four main approaches to the intra-day trade from following the trend to trade on the support or resistance. All of them are viable methods that can also be and the technical methods of positional trade. The following is a brief overview of each method, including their advantages and disadvantages:

Breakthrough trend and following the trend


Of all the methods of trade, following a new trend or a purchase of a break up and sale to break down, ultimately, may prove most effective. According to him, the trader should be the price when they move higher or lower entering the market in the belief that the «new peaks generate new maxima», and «new minima give rise to new minima». The system of trade at the break begins with an excellent work Keltnera in the 1960th, who set the tone in the various methods used in their favor maximum and minimum price for this time format. S & P 500 in the chart below shows the ideal situation for the intra-day trader who buys at the break of resistance. As is typical for this method - although the purchase of a break up or sell to break down, tend to work fairly well, it's quite difficult to do psychologically to the majority of traders, and it requires that traders deployed position, in case of error. There are many approaches to finding, verification and risk management systems for trade breakthrough.

Jack Bernstein
www.futuresmag.com

Intra - day trading should not be complicated, and in fact the entire application is a simple way to success. The most successful inside - Day traders use only a few basic strategies.

Some people work with very sophisticated techniques, just because they do not believe that just works. They say: «can not be that easy».

There are many approaches to the intra - day trading. We will not judge any of them better. If they work for you, the goal has been achieved.

Some do not like to use too many advanced technical indicators, with intra - day trading. The reason is that too many variables are taken into account. They prefer to receive clear signals of input based on the absolute price (ie the maximum and minimum). This gives them a clearer signal and less room for personal interpretation.
Trading on momentum

Trading on momentum usually lasts approximately 30 seconds to 1 hour. Trading on momentum is based on the strength of price movements and counter-trend of price movements, often caused by the news. Inside - Day traders often use this strategy.

Trading on breakthroughs

Trading on the gust of the market means buying a tool once it has moved above a certain price level. (sales vice versa) breakthroughs may occur in any temporal form. The most popular charts for intra - day traders trading on breakthroughs are 5 minute and 15 minute charts. The period of retention of position ranges from a few seconds (skalpirovanie break) before the end of the day.

Trading on rollback

Trading on the rollback is in contrast to trade in breakthroughs. Intra - day traders selling to downgrade the position when looking for market-based instruments recoil back to a significant amount (usually up to support) in order to justify the entry. (sales vice versa)

This is a classic intra - day trading, and many prefer to trade in breakthroughs, as well as the wish to confirm the movement of market instrument, although trading rollback can often be a lower foot. Period of trade is usually from several seconds to hours.

Scalping

Scalping is «ultra short» inside - day trading. Traders selling method Scalping try to take advantage of a very small price movements and to close their positions immediately, as soon as they have sufficient surplus or if the market instrument is not in their direction, or moves against them.

Trade on spreads

Trade on spreads may be viewed as a kind skalpirovaniya. Trade means to spread the use of their advantage of spread (price difference between supply and demand). That means the market to buy an instrument for the price of the proposal and then sell it immediately for the price of the demand with a small surplus. Currently, the implementation of this kind of inside - day trading has become more difficult because of the total reduction of spreads, in virtually all types of market instruments. However, under certain conditions, this strategy can be applied quite successfully.

Recommendations

It is desirable that everyone inside - the day trader to experiment with different strategies and then decided for themselves what strategy suits him most.
Intra - day strategy presented here is in any case, are not conclusive and comprehensive. Trade policies should be constantly monitored and adjusted. But this article gives a brief overview of how to work within - day traders.

The VDR-D50’s 42x optical zoom lens has the power you need to take dramatic closeups or get remarkable shots of even distant subjects. But with long-distance zoom shots, even a tiny bit of hand shake has a huge effect on picture quality. That’s where Panasonic’s Advanced Optical Image Stabilization (O.I.S.) comes in, suppressing the effects of hand shake as you shoot. The system uses gyrosensors to detect hand shake, then shifts a lens and adjusts the optical axis to compensate. This all happens a remarkable 4,000 times per second. And because the system is optical, no image quality is lost. Thanks to Advanced O.I.S., the images you capture look incredibly clear, sharp and blur-free even at high zoom levels.

For quick and easy operation, this DVD camcorder automatically finds a blank section on the disc when you start shooting. And with multi-format recording, you can choose whichever type of disc works best with your DVD player or recorder. When you finish shooting, just take the disc from the camcorder and slip it right into your DVD player or recorder. There’s no need to connect any cables and you can start viewing your memories right away.

You can either insert the DVD disc right into your PC or use the included USB cable to connect the camcorder to your PC and transfer the motion-image data that way. Then with the included VideoCam Suite 1.0 software, you can easily put scenes in a different order and delete the ones you don’t want. When you’re finished with your video production, you can resave the edited version onto an SD memory card or a DVD disc.

Product Specification :

Recording Format :DVD-R DL (8 cm), DVD-RAM (8 cm), DVD-R (8cm), DVD-RW (8 cm)
LCD Screen Size :2.7 in.
Digital Still Camera :Yes
Optical Zoom :42 X
Digital Zoom :2000 X
Image Stabalization :Optical
CCD Quantity :1 CCD

Source:electronic-gadget-gifts.findfastr.com

This highly-affordable HD camcorder is ideal for widescreen, high-resolution event documentation, presentation, training, coaching, and video production applications. Compatible with the rapidly growing number of large HD flat screen displays as well as front and rear-screen projectors, the AG-HSC1U offers much sharper images than can be obtained by standard definition (SD) camcorders.

Highly reliable and flexible because it’s solid state with no moving parts like tape or disc-based systems, the noiseless AG-HSC1U camcorder records up to 88 minutes (41 minutes in the highest quality mode) of video on a high-speed 4GB SDHC memory card. A highly-portable 40GB hard drive, capable of receiving and storing the contents of 10 4GB SDHC cards in the field, is packaged with the camcorder. SD video can be output in the widescreen 16: 9 format.

By utilizing the newly-developed, H.264-based Advanced Video Codec High Definition (AVCHD) video format, the AG-HSC1U delivers two times the recording efficiency of older MPEG-2 codec technologies like HDV. The AVCHD format is supported by a growing number of leading companies throughout the industry.

Product Specification :

Recording Format :Flash card
LCD Screen Size :3 in.
Digital Still Camera :Yes
Optical Zoom :12 X
Digital Zoom :700 X
CCD Quantity :3 CCD

Source:electronic-gadget-gifts.findfastr.com

MacBook Air is ultrathin, ultraportable, and ultra unlike anything else. But you don’t lose inches and pounds overnight. It’s the result of rethinking conventions. Of multiple wireless innovations. And of breakthrough design. With MacBook Air, mobile computing suddenly has a new standard.

MacBook Air is nearly as thin as your index finger. Practically every detail that could be streamlined has been. Yet it still has a 13.3-inch widescreen LED display, full-size keyboard, and large multi-touch trackpad. It’s incomparably portable without the usual ultraportable screen and keyboard compromises.

The incredible thinness of MacBook Air is the result of numerous size- and weight-shaving innovations. From a slimmer hard drive to strategically hidden I/O ports to a lower-profile battery, everything has been considered and reconsidered with thinness in mind.

MacBook Air performance is as impressive as its form, thanks to its Intel Core 2 Duo processor. This chip was custom-built to fit within the compact dimensions of MacBook Air.

Product Specification :

Processor Brand :Intel
Processor Class :Core 2 Duo
Processor Speed :1.6 GHz
Installed Memory :2 GB
Hard Drive Capacity :120 GB
Display Size :13.3 in.
Display Type :TFT active matrix
Max Battery Life :4.5 hrs.
Operating System :Apple MacOS X 10.5
Weight :3 lbs.

Source:electronic-gadget-gifts.findfastr.com

ASUS, a company renowned for pioneering netbooks, has recently introduced its latest product called ROG CG6190 which is a computer specifically designed to meet the demands of hard-core gamers.

This gaming PC features Intel’s latest technology called Core i7 processor which has been integrated with X58 Express chipset, allowing this computer to provide impressive performance speed.

Intel’s Core i7 has been designed to allow ROG CG6190 to perform twice as faster compared to Quad Core platform. With this technology’s impressive performance, 3D graphics (which have becoming more popular nowadays) can be supported by this desktop.

Another impressive feature of this device is the built-in biometric fingerprint scanner. With this technology, users should no longer worry about forgetting their passwords since the computer can be accessed by simply pressing one’s finger on the scanner.

To further immerse users with the virtual world of gaming, the desktop features a technology called FX X-Fi Audio Card with 3D nine virtual speakers which can support high quality audio sounds which can maximize the gaming experience of people.

To allow people to use this desktop for a longer period of time, it has a unique feature called liquid cooling modules which prevents overheating which may impede with the computer’s performance.

Providing high quality cinematic features, this computer has been designed with ATI CrossFireX combined with NVIDIA 3-WAY SLI to support high resolution graphics which come in vivid and well-details colors.

This desktop also boasts DDR3 1333 memory which can support up to 12 GB capacity. Meanwhile, the memory has also been designed to provide 6 x DIMM slots.

In terms of exterior design, the ROG CG6190 resembles an ancient armor with stripes of red lights on the casing which comes in ultra-black color. Meanwhile, this unique design is a fusion of Western and Eastern influence.

Meanwhile, the company has not yet revealed the exact pricing of ROG CG6190 and the date of its release to the general public.

Source:www.gadgetsfan.com

Flip Mini HD is a portable camcorder that features multiple media functions which allow users to capture great video recordings.

This video recorder features a 1.5-inch LCD screen designed with Touch Sensitive Technology which provides users with easy and fast applications. The screen also has also Transflective TFT that can deliver brilliant images even on direct sunlight.

To provide vivid and realistic color, it has been designed to support images with 1280 x 720 resolutions. Complementing this feature is the1/4.5-inch HD CMOS sensor with 2.2µm pixel.

One of the most notable features is the Light Sensitive Technology which allows people to capture great images even in low-light environment.

Another impressive feature is the multiple image settings including white balance and exposure that accommodates each unique characteristic of environments such as the landscape, lighting condition, etc.

This device can also support multiple video formats including H.264 video compression, MP4 file, and AAC audio compression. Regardless of the format, the handy camera can capture 30 frames of images every second.

The Lithium-ion rechargeable battery the device uses has been designed to last approximately two hours before recharging this again. Meanwhile, users can have two options in juicing up the device: either through computer USB port which should be charged for three hours or via power adapter for two hours.

Boasting multiple functions, the handy camera is very easy to use. Notable functions include saver that automatically shut down the device when not in use for an extended time; pause, fast forward, and rewind modes; and time/date setting.

As this portable camera is designed for bloggers who want to upload their recordings to video-sharing websites, the Flip Mini HD allows direct upload.

Other features are video compression of Pure Digital Video Engine 3.0; fixed-focus lens; still photo capability; image editing tools; and f2.4 aperture for capturing images in low-light condition.

Flip Mini HD comes at a suggested retail price of $229.99 and is only made available in black color.

Source:www.gadgetsfan.com

JAKKS Pacific, Inc., a company which manufacturers toy and consumer electronic devices, unveiled its latest miniaturized projector that will allow people to watch movies and video recordings in bigger screen.

The EyeClops Mini Projector primary feature is its compact design which can easily fit inside the pockets. Because of its portability, users can easily carry the projector from anywhere they will go.

The projector uses a high powered LED Illumination Technology which is highly ideal for displaying clean and crisp quality pictures. One major advantage of this technology is that it allows the device to consume the least amount of energy unlike other forms of light.

The portable device can also display images up to 70-inch in size and has been designed to support multiple electronic entertainment media including gaming consoles, MP3 players, Blu-ray, DVD players, other forms of video players, and some models of digital cameras. The advantage of this wide compatibility is that users are no longer required to buy converter boxes or cables to support other media devices.

To complement the high quality picture it can support, EyeClops has a built-in speakers designed to provide clean audio sound that will maximize the viewing experience of its users.

When tested, the projector can play up to 10 hours of videos with sounds using D batteries. On the other hand, people can use other power source such as DC adapters.

According to JAKKS website, the EyeClops projector comes at a suggested retail price of $99.99 and this can be purchased through online or from any major electronics stores nationwide. Meanwhile, the company said that the device will be introduced in late September this year.

In a statement, JAKKS Senior vice president John Ardell said that the company has introduced the mini projector to allow people to bring a full entertainment media anywhere they go, adding that they made sure that this will come at a very affordable price that will allow consumers to purchase the product.

Source:www.gadgetsfan.com

Bang & Olufsen, a Danish electronic company, recently unveiled a prototype television that will revolutionize the whole concept of this device as entertainment and media center is combined into one.

The prototype television, dubbed as BeoVision 4, is a 103-inch widescreen television that will feature complete media technologies including impressive audio system, high definition video support, and home integration capability.

According to the company, the television uses plasma technology that supports bright and vivid images. Another advantage of this flat panel display is that it can provide large surface with thin diameter. It also has a wider viewing angle compared to LCD panels which has reduced view angle in at least one of its direction.

Bang & Olufsen also said that this television will come with an “intelligent” remote control which provides interactive experience for its users who can easily manage all the features of the media center/entertainment device.

With the introduction of this prototype plasma television, the Danish company has created the widest consumer flat screen television which has also been designed to serve as a full media center for people, allowing them to control other home devices including security system, lights, ventilation, and other commonly used appliances. With this capability, home management will be a lot easier for users.

Another impressive feature is the durable design made possible because of the strong aluminum frame which can protect the internal parts from harsh elements. And since plasma technology can last up to 100,000 hours of actual display, this television can last up to 27 years with its image quality still vivid and bright.

Because BeoVision has been designed to provide home cinema viewing experience, it offers impressive image technologies including anti-reflection coated contrast screen which allows viewers to watch programs even in bright lights and automatic picture control which provides vivid and high definition pictures.

To maximize the viewing experience of users, this television also provides BeoSystem 3 picture and surround sound engine and BeoLab 10 centre loudspeaker for a crisp and clean sound.

Source:www.gadgetsfan.com

• Mini video spy camera
• Rechargeable Li-ion battery (recharges from USB port)
• Can also be used as an 8GB USB flash drive
• Built-in microphone
• Watch band length is adjustable
• Video in AVI Format (352x288) at 15 FPS
• Dimensions: watch face is 45 x 14mm (dia x H)
• Windows 98SE/ME/2000/XP/Vista, MAC OS compatible
• Includes: watch, USB cable, user manual, Power adapter (110-240V 50/60Hz)

Krups and Heineken Group have introduced its latest product called BeerTender which is a pub-style beer draft that can store five liters of alcoholic drink.

This appliance includes a keg which is made of lightweight materials such as plastics and aluminum. These two elements work perfectly to maintain the alcoholic beverage fresh for up to 30 days or more.

The kegs can last for more than a month inside the BeerTender. After these containers have been used, consumers should return it to the market or store which will be then collected by breweries to replace it with a new container for beer. Also, the tubing must also be replaced after every keg (it comes at a price of $11 for every 10 tubes and can be purchased from its online store).

The beer barrel features Peltier cooling system which allows users to adjust the temperature (it has three settings). This feature is complemented with the internal carbonation technology which allows foam formation on each beer serving.

Another impressive feature is the digital panel which provides readouts such as temperature level which allows people to maintain the coolness of the beer, volume display shows how much is the content of the barrel, and freshness indicator which allows people to know how long the alcoholic beverage can maintain its quality.

This is how to use the BeerTender: place the keg (this is preferably cooled before use) inside the appliance and simply adjust the temperature system for any desired level. After this, users can simply open the faucet to allow the cold beer to flow.

This appliance works by pumping air to the inside which creates external pressure on the beer’s container. With this simple ergonomic principle, the alcoholic beverage will be pushed out of its container and will flow easily from the tap.

Without using pressurized capsules, the BeerTender is safer and more convenient to use compared to other conventional beer drafts which also makes it ideal for home use.

With this piece of equipment, people should no longer worry about cramp refrigerators and freezers since they have a container specifically designed for storing beers.

Source:www.gadgetsfan.com

The major techniques of analysis of the FOREX market are fundamental and technical analysis. Therefore there is a tendency to divide traders into two different schools of market analysis, fundamental and technical.

In reality, lately it has become very difficult to follow only one of the two schools of analysis. Fundamentalists have to watch the signals that are reflected in the movement of prices on the chart, at the same time very few supporters of the pure technical analysis can do without any economic figures, news about critical political decisions and social problems, which influence prices.

The fundamental analysis involves research of key factors, which influence the economy of a concrete country. This method tries to predict the movement of prices and market trends, using the analysis of economic indicators, politics of the state and social factors in the limits of business development. If we compare financial markets to the clock, then fundamentals indicators will be its mechanism and springs, which make the hands of the clock move. Anybody can say what time it is, taking a look at the clock, and fundamentalists can explain why it is this time now and, what is most important, what time (or, more exactly, what price) it will be in the future.

Keeping in mind that fanciful financial constructions of every country involve many factors, it might be very difficult to understand all the details of the swiftly changing fundamental picture. At the same time you will find out that you will acquire considerable knowledge and understanding of the dynamic global market, penetrating deeper and deeper into the complexities and intricacies of fundamental market indicators.

Fundamental market analysis is an efficient way to forecast economic conditions, but not market prices. For example, analyzing an economic forecast of the future GNP, or a report on employment, you will get a rather clear picture of the general situation in the economy and the rate of employment. However, you have to find an exact method to convert this information into the moments of entering (the market) and exiting (the market) for a certain trading strategy.

A trader, who investigates the market, using fundamental analysis, usually creates models in order to form some trading strategy. In these models, as a rule, a lot of empiric data are used in order to predict the market performance and assess the future of the price or cost, using the previous meanings of key economic indicators. Then this information is used for conducting concrete transactions.

Models of the forecast are plentiful and various. Two persons, on getting one and the same information, can come to absolutely different conclusions about the way this information will influence the market. Therefore, before interpreting any aspect of the market analysis, you should investigate fundamental indicators and see if they suit your style of trading and expectations of the market.

Do not make a too detailed analysis. If there are too many fundamental factors, there's a danger to overload oneself with information. Even experienced traders fall into the trap and cannot make a decision about the price movement.

When using methods of technical analysis, there just cannot be too much information. Modern computer systems quickly analyze the flow of numerical data and give the direction of the supposed market movement with the help of graphic symbols. But, in any case, it's impossible to trade successfully only with the help of indicators of the mechanical trade system. You can be lucky in some cases, but not in a long-time perspective.

The best approach, according to the fundamentalists, is to use some indicators that influence the general picture most of all. They think it's much better than using the comprehensive list of all fundamental factors.

Technical analysis is a method of predicting the movement of exchange rate by watching the data, generated by the market. The data of the price of the concrete market is the main information, analyzed by a technical analyst and computer program. By applying any analytical analysis (fundamental or technical), one should not forget the main rule - to keep to the basis, which is a methodology with the watched movement of prices during a long period of time.

The peculiarity of technical analysis is in the fact that the movement of the market rate in the future will be similar to its movement in the past. That's why traders make their decisions on the basis of the predictable trend (direction) of the exchange rate (analyzing previous rates), which, in its turn, influences the performance of the real rate.

Almost every trader uses technical analysis in a special way. Even the most vehement follower of the fundamental analysis looks through charts of prices before conducting a transaction. At the simplest level of their usage, these charts help traders determine the ideal spots of entering and exiting a transaction. They provide the graphic picture of historical performance of the price or of whatever is being investigated at the moment. At any time the trader can look at the chart and determine if they are buying at fair value, on the basis of the price history of a certain market, if they sell on the top of price fluctuation, or if they risk their capital in an unstable market. This is only a small part of market conditions, which the trader identifies with the help of charts. Depending on the level of complexity, charts will help make a more advanced market analysis.

At first sight it may seem that the followers of technical analysis ignore fundamental market indicators, surrounding themselves with charts and tables of data. Any of them will tell you that the fundamental factors are already reflected in the price. They are not so much preoccupied by the fact what exactly caused the recent jump of the price (natural catastrophe or a high rate of inflation), as by the fact how this performance of the price suit the general picture or trend. Most of all they want to know how this trend can be used for the forecast of the future prices.

The technical analysis stipulates that
1. all fundamental market factors are reflected in the factual market data.
2. history repeats itself.
3. rates move according to the trend.
4. Parts of the system of technical analysis are price charts, charts of trading volumes and a lot of other mathematical expressions of market trends and performance. These mathematical operations (they are also called market investigation) with various kinds of market data are used to determine the power and duration of a certain trend. That's why, instead of merely relying upon price charts to predict future market meanings, followers of the technical analysis also use many other technical indicators before they open or close a position.

Just like in many other trading aspects, it's recommended to be greatly disciplined while applying technical analysis. Very often a trader neither sell nor buy currency in the market, even after the price has reached the level, which was determined by technical analysis as the level of entering (exiting) the market. It happens, first of all, because sometimes it is difficult to find out the main reasons, which caused this price level.

For instance, you buy US dollars for euro, and you mark the take profit and stop loss orders at 50 points from the entrance. Let's suppose that if due to some unexpected event dollar will fall lower the level of the stop loss order. Then you might want to keep this position for some more time, hoping that the market will change, and you will be a winner. It's very difficult to make a decision about closing a position in order to diminish losses, and it's even more difficult not to yield to temptation to realize the profit too early on the profitable trade. Common mistakes of a losing trader are that he waits too long, hoping that the market will turn to the wanted direction, and common mistakes of a winning trader are that he exits the market too early. If you apply technical analysis in order to determine the entrance and exit levels, you should always keep to the trading strategy you have developed.

FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS: WHAT INFLUENCES THE RATE?

Among the main factors, which influence the movement of currency rate, one can single out the most important ones:
1. Activity of the central banks
2. Activity of various foundations
3. Publication of relevant data and their expectancy
4. Trading of exporters and importers
5. Declarations of political leaders

Activity of the Central Banks

Any state influences the currency market with the help of the Central Banks. The state national currency is "floating," if its central bank does not interfere with the operations of converting currency through buying and selling it in the international exchange market. In real life this is extremely rare. From time to time states with floating exchange rates influence the rate of their currency with the help of currency operations.

Usually the countries regulate the currency rate in order to increase productivity and consumption. There are two kinds of regulation: direct and indirect. Policy of interest rates and currency interventions in foreign currency markets are direct methods of regulation. Inflation rate, the amount of money in circulation etc. are indirect methods of regulation. What are the currency interventions? As a rule, these are the operations, which are followed by an active throw or removal of big currency amounts from the international market. The central bank carries out the entrance of currency to the market through commercial banks. Because of volumes of many milliards, currency interventions cause big changes in currency rates.

If a state feels that it has to increase the cost of its money unit, its central bank buys up its national currency in the international exchange market, doing that at the expense of the foreign currency it has at its disposal. If at some point it's necessary to depreciate national currency, the state uses additional emission to increase the demand of national currency in the international market.

Activity of various foundations

Activities of various foundations are one of the key factors that influence long-term trends of currency rate movements. There are insurance, investment, hedging, and pension foundations. Investments into concrete currencies - this is one of the directions of their activity. These foundations have very big financial means, as well as opportunities to change currency rates in the direction they want. Managers o the foundations, being professionals in the field of investments, run actives of the foundations.

As a rule, managers of the foundations make their decisions on the basis of a thorough analysis of financial markets. Depending on the chosen strategy and principles of work, they open long-term and short-term positions in the market. Fundamental, technical, psychological analysis, analysis of interrelated markets and other kinds of analysis are in the arsenal of the manager, who tries to envisage consequences of the events on the basis of the processed data. Thus, it's very important for the foundation manager to be able to outstrip events.

The direction of the rate movement and methods of work are chosen after the managers have received the full picture of the currency market (in the global sense). It's very difficult to get an ideal result with the help of a certain kind of analysis. But, having in store a precise system of trading and manipulations as well as real means, the foundations are able to correct, launch and strengthen the most powerful tendencies of currency directions.

Publications of relevant data and their expectancy

Occurrence of the following events can be considered as the data, the appearance of which influences the currency rate: surveys of economies, information about interest rates changes in different countries, publication on economic indicators, influencing the currency market, and other events.

It's important to mention that not only the occurrence of the event itself, but also expectations of some event can be considered significant factors of influence on the currency rates. It's rather difficult to say what influences the market most of all - the event itself or its expectation. It's generally accepted that the appearance of significant data leads to important and long-term trends.

As there are tables of economic indicators and most important events in the life of certain states (with dates, time of their appearance), the market participants have enough time to get ready for the events. Moreover, while waiting for the events, predictions of some indicator and its probable influence on the currency rate are born.

After the publication of an event the rate can change its direction upward as well as downward. Everything depends on the way the indicator will be interpreted by the participants of the market. The appearance of the data can lead to sharp fluctuations of currency rates, to an increase of the existing trend, to its correction, or to the beginning of a new trend. What does the result of the publication of an event depend on? The market situation, economic condition of the host-countries of the currencies under consideration, preliminary expectations and moods, as well as the meanings of a concrete indicator, - all this has an influence on the result of the appearance of the news.

The movement of the rate in a concrete direction arises before the information about the event appears (the direction of perception of the future event). Usually the rate moves in the opposite direction after the data appear.

It is explained also by the fact that the positions were opened according to expectations, and when the expectation became true, the positions were closed (collecting profits).

Trading of exporters and importers

Exporters and importers use currency market in its pure aspect. Importers have a permanent stimulus to buy foreign currency, and exporters have the same stimulus to sell it. In big and serious companies, which deal with export and import operations, there are divisions of analysis, which forecast the movement of currency rates in order to sell or buy foreign currency in a more profitable way.

In the market of US dollar against Japanese yen, a serious influence of exporters and importers can be seen. When importers do not allow the rate to fall, and exporters do not let the rate to rise high, there must be no obvious tendencies on the market. That's why they are able to keep the rate in a certain corridor for some time. In analytical publications on the market of dollar against yen, levels of a possible entrance into the market of importers (support level) and exporters (resistance level) are sometimes given.

With the aim of hedging currency risks, exporters and importers are also interested in monitoring trends. Minimization of currency risks takes place with the help of opening the position, which is opposite to the future operation.

Activities of exporters and importers, as a rule, make corrections in the market, because it becomes profitable to sell/buy foreign currency when certain levels are reached. It's worth mentioning that the influence of exporters and importers in the market does not cause significant trends (it's short-lived), because the volumes of transactions are insignificant in comparison to the general volumes of trading in the currency market.

Declarations of political leaders

During various reports, meetings, summits, press conferences etc. one can hear opinions of political leaders, which can influence the movement of currency rates.

Journalists watch such things very attentively, publishing the most important opinions at once. The influential power of these declarations on currency rates can be compared to economic indicators.

As in the case of appearance important data, the date and time of a certain declaration are known. The market is getting ready to such events, publishing prognoses of what can be said and how it can influence the movement of the rate. Considering the human factor, one cannot foresee the calendar for all declarations, and sometimes such things happen unexpectedly. In this case some unpredicted powerful movements of currency rates are possible.

If some opinions include long-term consequences (for example, principles of forming a state budget, a possibility of changing interest rates etc.), then such changes of the rates can turn into long-term tendencies.

Talking about political leaders, one can say that they cast a spell over the rate. At some concrete moments, when the national currency rate reaches unfavorable levels, they say that, to their mind, the rate will stop moving, that they will not allow it to move further, that some interference is possible, etc. And as these people are trustworthy (due to their authority and power), their words start influencing the market directly.

Usually such an event takes place after a powerful and long-time trend to one direction. After such declarations traders can decide to listen to them and start closing the existing positions, which, in its turn, leads to correcting the trend.

The declarations can be followed by interference of the central banks, especially when the rate is in the critical situation indeed. This influences the market in a very powerful way - the rate can move a few hundreds points to the direction of intervention during a short time. Moreover, the participants of the market, influenced by the intervention, can start closing positions in the old direction, which can lead to falling movements of the rate on the market.

TECHNICAL FACTORS: WHAT INFLUENCES THE RATE?

The classical definitions and axioms were formulated in the beginning of the 1980s: "Technical analysis is a method of predicting prices with the help of investigating charts of market movements during the previous periods of time." Under the term "movements of prices" one understands two main kinds of information: price and volume of trade. Price is considered the real price of goods on stock markets, as well as meanings of currency and other indices. Trade volume is a common number of concluded contracts during a certain period of time (minute, day, week). Price is the most important and informative thing, its investigation is easier, and most techniques are applied to it. Trade volume is also very important for predicting, and it's a secondary indicator.

Technical analysis, as a theory with its own philosophic system, has a certain set of axioms:
1. Movements of the market take everything into account. This statement is the main one in technical analysis, without it it's impossible to adequately assess any methods. The point is that any factor (economic, political, psychological), which influences the price, has been considered and reflected in its chart. The axiom says that there's a corresponding change of external conditions for any change of the price. That's why examining of the chart is a must for making forecasts.
2. Prices move with a purpose. This supposition has become the basis for creating all the techniques of technical analysis, the major task of which is to determine trends, and especially their characteristics from the moment of appearance and to the very end, for applying them in trading.
3. History repeats itself, which is natural and obvious. Technical analysis deals with the history of certain events, connected with the market. The analysts suppose that if some types of the analysis worked in the past, they will work in the future as well, because their work is based on the stable human psychology. From the point of view of technical analysis, in order to understand the future, we have to investigate the past.

Trend Following Trading and Swing Trading

There're two major approaches to building trading strategies. The first approach stipulates that the price fluctuates locally around some 'balanced' level, and if the price has moved away from this level, it will probably come back. That's why it's supposed that there exists some 'channel', inside of which the price fluctuates. The strategies, built on this approach, propose to buy cheap, on the lower border of the channel, and sell for a bigger price on the upper border. However, it's clear that a strong trend movement will destroy the channel, and the positions, opened on the lower border of the channel should be closed with losses, when a strong trend downwards will appear. That's why the major role in such systems belongs to the mechanism for determination the market performance (trend/no trend). If the market is in a trend, the trader is out of the market until the trend stops and the horizontal channel starts forming up. Such systems are called Swing Trading. They enter a position against the movement and try to buy cheap in order to sell at a higher price. A new trader will think that this approach is the right one, and he can fall into the trap. He starts trading without having a clear strategy for leaving a suddenly started trend. As a result, a single powerful movement against an opened position can eat up all the profit, saved in the 'channel'.

There's another approach, which proposes to buy for a bigger price and to sell cheap. Such actions might seem illogical, but this approach gives the most stable results. The main aim of the strategy is to catch the started trend and keep the position according to the trend as long as it is not finished. Such strategies are called Trend Following Trading. They enter a position alongside the price movement. They buy at a higher price when the price is growing in order to sell at an even higher price later, and they sell cheap at the falling price in order to buy cheaper.

As a rule, the take profit orders are not used in such systems, because it's difficult to predict when the movement stops. The trader risks to lose most of his profits, if he closes the position too quickly. The trend is usually monitored with the help of the trailing stop, and closing of the position occurs when the price falls down to the trailing stop. The major rule of working with the caught trend is the following: let the profit grow and cut losses.

Trend systems are rather difficult psychologically. They not only make the trader act against common sense, buying at a high price and selling cheap, but they, as a rule, give a large number of false entrances, which have to be closed with losses. Such systems lead to a great number of small losses and to a small number of very big profits from caught trends. Because statistically it's more probable that the next transaction will be unprofitable, there's a great temptation to skip the next transaction, if the market conditions will seem unfavorable, for example, a flat trend. And this is one more psychological trap, which makes successful trend trading impossible for the people with weak nerves.

However, the major profit, which can be received from price movements, is contained in the trends of different scales. To build up a successful and stable trend following strategy is a lot simpler, than a swing trend strategy. Even the simplest strategies give quite good results in most markets.

In general, as a rule, the most successful and steadily profitable systems are psychologically difficult for trading. And it has some sense, because any widely used successfully strategies start changing the market, and the market adjusts itself in such a way that they stop working. That's why only the strategies, which have a 'safety device' against their massive application, survive. Very many traders unconsciously trade in an easier way, not trying to get profits.

Source:www.dealing24.com

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